Thursday, August 6, 2009

Sterling Weaken as BOE Shock Market

1.Swiss consumer sentiment index -42 points in Q-3, down from -38 in previous quarterly survey. 16-year low. Versus -43 median forecast

2.German Markit construction index, based on survey of more than 200 construction firms, rose to seasonally adjusted 43.7 in July from 41.0 in June

3.Dutch July CPI eases to +0.2% y/y compared to +1.4% y/y in June. Inflation data much weaker than median forecast of +0.9%

4.Italy June industry output seasonally adjusted -1.2% m/m, work day adjusted -21.9% y/y, much weaker than median forecasts of +0.4%, -20.0% respectively

5.UK new car registrations in July +2.4% y/y. First rise in 15 months

6.UK construction orders rose 18% in Q2 2009 compared to previous quarter , but still down 21% on the year- ONS

7.German factory (manufacturing) orders rose +4.5% m/m in June, much stronger than the median forecast of +0.6%. Biggest gain since June 2007 and fourth consecutive monthly rise. Comes on the back of strong foreign demand

8.Moody’s: Global speculative- grade default rate rose to 10.7% in July from 10.3% in June, surpassing 2002 peak of 10.4%. Seen peaking at 12.2% in Q4 2009 and then declining sharply to 4.4% in July 2010

9.UK commercial property prices rose 0.2% in July, first positive reading since June 2007 – CBRE (World’s largest real estate broker)
Bank of England shocks markets and extends QE to £175 bln from £125 bln. Leaves rates steady, as expected

European Stock Futures Advance Before Interest-Rate Decisions

 
European stock futures climbed before interest-rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares gained.
Commerzbank AG may be active after Germany’s second-biggest bank reported a fourth consecutive quarterly loss. Deutsche Telekom AG and Zurich Financial Services AG may move after posting second-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates.
Futures on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a benchmark for the euro region, added 0.7 percent to 2,662 at 7:16 a.m. in London. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index may increase 24, according to Cantor Index, a betting firm.
“A packed economic and corporate calendar look set to dominate proceedings,” Jimmy Yates, head of equities at CMC Markets in London, wrote. “A positive session in Asia is helping a little, but there is a degree of caution ahead of some key data due to be released over the next couple of days.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 has climbed 44 percent since March 9 as companies from GlaxoSmithKline Plc to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported better-than-estimated earnings. The gauge is now valued at 37.5 times the profits of its companies, the highest level since September 2003, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.1 percent before a weekly report on initial jobless claims. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities yesterday fell from a nine-month high after data on job losses and service industries were worse than economists estimated.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7 percent today as employers in Australia unexpectedly added jobs, Alumina Ltd. posted a smaller-than-estimated underlying loss and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. said earnings at its fixed-line units increased.

Interest-Rate Decisions

The Bank of England will announce the Monetary Policy Committee’s monthly decision at 12 p.m. today in London. The bank will keep the benchmark rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, according to all 60 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Governor Mervyn King may need to spell out the central bank’s next policy step after completing the latest phase of its bond-purchase program, economists say. The European Central Bank will keep its key rate at a record low as it tries to get credit flowing again to strengthen an economy that may return to growth this quarter, economists said. The ECB announces its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt and President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later.

Commerzbank, Deutsche Telekom

Commerzbank will probably move. The German lender posted a second-quarter loss of 746 million euros ($1.07 billion) after setting aside more money for bad loans and debt-related writedowns. The median estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for a loss of 648 million euros.

Deutsche Telekom may be active. Europe’s biggest telephone company reported a 32 percent increase in second-quarter profit, less than analysts had anticipated, as it lost U.K. mobile customers.

Zurich Financial, Switzerland’s largest insurer, reported a 29 percent decline in second-quarter profit because of lower general insurance earnings and investment losses. Net income fell to $892 million, missing the $901.7 million median estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Per-share earnings have slumped 41 percent at companies on the Stoxx 600 while more than half of profits have topped analysts’ projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Of the 206 companies to have reported results since July 8, 104 have beaten estimates, the data show.

Alumina, NTT

Alumina, partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, surged 9.8 percent to A$1.80 in Sydney. The company reported an underlying loss of A$15 million ($12.6 million) in the six months ended June 30, beating the A$22 million median estimate of three analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

NTT, Japan’s biggest phone operator, climbed 2.5 percent to 4,070 yen. The company said yesterday that operating profits at its fixed-line units NTT East Corp. and NTT West Corp. grew at least 76 percent in the three months to June 30.