Let look at this report by Bloomberg and I'll make my personal elaboration later (after I'm done with my current research)
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators increased more than anticipated in December, a sign the economy will keep growing through the first half of the year.
The New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 1.1 percent, the most in three months, after climbing 1 percent in November. The December gain was the ninth straight and exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey for a 0.7 percent rise.
Fewer firings, rising stock prices and efforts by the Federal Reserve to keep short-term interest rates low boosted the leading index and may help keep Americans spending. Faster economic growth will hinge on sustained employment gains that have yet to materialize.
“The economic recovery still has momentum,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who correctly forecast the December gain. “Right now, the linchpin is confidence. Both businesses and consumers need to feel like it’s a worthwhile thing to start spending money again.”
A separate report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area expanded in January for a fifth month. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell to 15.2 this month from 22.5 in December. Readings greater than zero signal growth.
Jobless Claims
Labor Department figures today showed jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 482,000 last week from 446,000 a week earlier, reflecting a backlog of applications from the year-end holidays.
U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses after the reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,140.11 at 10:06 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the leading indicators index would increase 0.7 percent from a previously reported 0.9 percent gain in November, according to the median of 58 estimates. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent.
Eight of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the gain, led by the difference between long-term and short- term interest rates, building permits and a drop in jobless claims in December. Stock prices, consumer expectations and supplier deliveries also helped the index.
None of the indicators fell during the month, while gauges of the factory workweek and orders for consumer goods were unchanged.
Coincident Indicators
The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in December for a third month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production, the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions.
The gauge of lagging indicators decreased 0.2 percent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit.
The world’s largest economy will probably expand at a 2.7 percent annual pace from January through March and at a 2.9 percent rate in the following quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month.
Interest Rates
The index’s positive spread between the yield on the 10- year Treasury note and the overnight fed funds rate is based on expectations the economy will keep improving.
Seven of 10 indicators for the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times.
The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods, and the money supply adjusted for inflation.
Jobless claims averaged 460,250 in December, down from 480,750 a month earlier. U.S. stocks continued to rise last month as reports suggested the economy was improving. The S&P 500 averaged 1,110.38 in December, compared with 1,088.07 the previous month. The index reached the highest closing level in 14 months on Dec. 28.
Applications for building permits rose 11 percent to a 653,000 annual rate last month, the most since October 2008, the Commerce Department said yesterday.
The Reuters/University of Michigan’s reading on consumer expectations for the next six months rose to 68.9 in December from 66.5 the previous month.
‘Seeing Stabilization’
“We are seeing stabilization in the economy,” Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America Corp., said yesterday in an interview. The head of Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender, said the economy is still “fragile.”
Reiterating their pledge to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period,” Fed policy makers last month said the recovery faced hurdles.
The central bankers, who next meet Jan. 26-27 in Washington, will keep their target for overnight lending among banks unchanged through September before raising it by half a point in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed this month. The Fed has kept the benchmark rate near zero since December 2008.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Brasil...Economy and Social - Development
Brasil.. I prefer to use the capital 's' rather than 'z' to honor Brasillian. Whereby the history of Portuguese colonization dated back in 1500 commanded by Pedro Álvares Cabral (while Malacca, Malaysia was invaded by Portuguese in 1511) and hence until the new era of democracy, Brasil has a lot of unique and interesting facts to observe and understand.
As in this year 2010, Brasil will again 'confront' with national election for the new President. Several candidate that run the campaign has come up with more creative and constructive new ideas for Brasilian, matters such as economic, social policies, green-policies and civil-safety policies were the main concern for these candidate. As Brasil heads towards the economic growth and economic prosperity with rapid development and industrialization, a new measure and policies need to be focus more deeply on poor and rural population.
According to Blanco Central do Brasil, Brazil is a member of diverse economic organizations, such as Mercosul, SACN, G8+5, G20 and the Cairns Group. Its trade partners number in the hundreds, with 60% of exports mostly of manufactured or semimanufactured goods.[11] Brazil's main trade partners in 2008 were: Mercosul and Latin America (25.9% of trade), EU (23.4%), Asia (18.9%), the United States (14.0%), and others (17.8%), its gross domestic product,GDP, surpasses $1.6 trillion dollars, the eighth in the world and the second in the Americas in the World Bank ranking; measured by purchasing power parity, $1.9 trillion, making it the ninth largest economy in the world.
History of Brasil economy are dated back during Portuguese era (1500-1822), where the main economic activity are sugar, gold and coffee, this rapid activity of production makes Portuguese to bring African slaves to cope with the demand of production, estimated statistics show that 4.5 million people emigrated to the country between 1882 and 1934 and creates a new identity and demographic more unique and diversify.
Period of great economic transformation and growth occurred between 1875 and 1975 where in 1808, Brasil obtained a permit from the Portuguese colonial government to set up its first factories and manufacturers. In the last decade, domestic production increased by 32.3% and agribusiness (agriculture and cattle-raising), which grew by 47% or 3.6% per year, was the most dynamic sector. Recent report from Blanco Central do Brasil indicated that Brasil inflation rose 0.28% per annum which where this growth of inflation is in a healthier pace.
Oil production is the second biggest in Latin America after Venvuela. Brasil proven oil reserve stood at the rank 16th with 0.90%. Several invitation from OPEC has been refused and rejected my current President Lula as he quoted 'there's no reason for Brasil to join OPEC as Brasil intended to export oil derive materials and not the crude oil'. This action worried OPEC members. Lula reportedly claimed that Brasil shouldn't import raw material as Brasil itself will aims to increase its own national industrial production. Current largest purchaser on Brasil oil is United States of America, People Republic of China and other smaller nation. Economist in Brasil projected that the revenue derived from oil production and export will enhance more drastically towards Brasil economy and development.
GDP report on 2008 is US$ 1.612 trillion which ranked Brasil the 8th in the world, GDP growth is 1.5%, GDP per capita is US$ 8.295 ranked 63th by IMF and Unemployment Rate is 7.5% - 9.1 % on 2009. Export valued at US$ 197.9 billion (wikipedia) and import valued at US$ 173.2 billion (wikipedia). Blanco Central do Brasil released a report on Foreign Reserve for the year 2009 net value US$ 237.5 billion and Public Debt at US$ 103.2 billion.
According to my best friend who reside in Rio de Janeiro, the cost of living in Brasil especially in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are extremely high, and according Mercer's 2009 Cost of Living surveys stated that the cost of living in Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro have experienced a reverse move, plummeting from 25th to 72nd and 31st to 73rd respectively as it is believes to be due to the strengthening of US dollar and active domestic involvement to stimulus the economy.
Brasil component of economy comprised on the service sector as the largest component of GDP at 66.8%, followed by the industrial sector at 29.7% (2007 est.). Agriculture represents 3.5% of GDP (2008 est.). Brazilian labor force is estimated at 100.77 million of which 10% is occupied in agriculture, 19% in the industry sector and 71% in the service sector. The minimum wage set for the year of 2010 is R$ 6.630,00 or R$ 510,00 per month plus and additional 13th salary (R$ 255,00 in June and R$ 255,00 in December)(Brasil National Labour Statistic 2009). Moisés Naím, a Venezuelan writer, critique gave his comment on Brasil economic status saying that "In Brazil a labor-union leader has presided over an amazing period of social and economic progress. It is also one of the few countries that have successfully managed to reduce economic inequality at a time when everywhere else inequities are deepening. Successive Brazilian governments, of rival political parties, have succeeded in improving education, health and the living standards of millions of impoverished citizens who have now joined a growing middle class. Brazil has an energy policy that has spawned the world's most vibrant biofuels industry. In 1995, 15 percent of Brazilian school-age children did not go to school. In 2005, this fell to 3 percent, and today Brazil has practically achieved universal basic education." Newsweek - June 2009.
Comment from Dr Naim has open a new perspective for me to explore more toward the social structure and demographic reality of Brasil and of course Brasilian.
The terminology of 'economic inequality' makes me wonder what does it is actually means.. could it be a metaphor or simply sarcastic hyperbole? Need to agree again with my friend in Rio, Miss Esteves, whereby she'd explained to me that the social income are utterly in a biggest gap. There's not anymore 'invincible hand' as our Father of Modern Economy, Adam Smith, taught us. Social issues in Brasil contrasts for the fact of the country be the ninth largest economy in the world and the largest in Latin America. It is a country of extremes, with outstanding cultural, social and ecological diversity. Modern industry and commerce has flourished alongside with tremendous inequality, currently, one of the most serious challenges for the country today. Despite the rich natural resources, rapid economic development, and the overall size of Brazil's economy, the nation has major problems with poverty, hunger, disease, and inadequate public services. The income difference between rich and poor is among the most substantial in the world. According to Gini Coefficient Index, Brasil has amongst the highest income inequality in the world, ranking 49.3, with the richest 10% of Brazilians receiving 50% of the nation's income, while the poorest 10% receive less than 1%.
"Poverty in Brasil is most visually represented by the various favelas, slums in the country's metropolitan areas and remote upcountry regions that suffer with economic underdevelopment and below-par standards of living. An attempt to mitigate these problems is the "Fome Zero" hunger-eradication program implemented by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2003. Part of this is "Bolsa Família," a major anti-poverty program that gives money directly to impoverished families so as to keep their children in school." wikipedia
President Lula's government reduced 19.8% the rate of misery based on labour income during June 2002 and June 2006 according to Fundação Getúlio Vargas. In June 2006, the rate of misery was 18.57% of the population. The rate of poverty is in part attributed to the country's economic inequality. Brazil ranks among the world's highest nations in the Gini coefficient index of inequality assessment. A study on the subject shows that the poor segment constitutes roughly one third of the population, and the extremely poor make out 13% (2005 figures). However, the same study shows the income growth of the poorest 20% population segment to be almost in par with China, while the richest 10% are stagnating.
The world still remember this shocking incident occurred in Rio de Janeiro on October - November 2009 when the Police and Drug gang member are shooting each other for several weeks. The Rio Times called it a 'war'. This has tarnished Rio de Janeiro image for 2016 Olympic, and makes people wonder would it be safe to live in Rio? Of course it is safe living in Rio if you have someone you know in Brasil, Crimes can happen anywhere and nobody could avoid this phenomena, but when there's a lack of action and prevention done by the authority.. this will causes worried, the domestic economy will suffer because it is not more safe to operate their businesses, the Foreign Direct Investor would withdraw from Brasil as they afraid that this circumstances will caused panic to the market and this will result a new economic crisis. Brasil has serious problems with crime especially in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. With roughly 23.8 homicides per 100,000 residents, muggings, robberies, kidnappings and gang violence are common. Police brutality and corruption are widespread. In response, the Brazilian government established the National Public Security Force (FNSP) in June 2004 by the Ministry of Justice, to act in situations of emergency, in times of crisis. But the FNSP only react when there's time of crisis, why don't enhance the civil security services? discipline? anti-corruption? and widening and also enhancing civil legislation to create more peace and safer Brasil? It's is well understand that President Lula and his teams has done every measures and action to solve this issue the best they could.
Dr Naim stated again that the school attendance are really bad for Brasilian children. School attendance by absence is the biggest problem in Brasil educational system. As reported by UN, most children in poor family has started to work at the age of 10, while it is illegal to work under the age of 16 in Brasil, the number of child labour are increasing, one of the biggest reason for these wonderful children to work at the young age is to help their family. The standards of primary and secondary public education have been falling over the past decades. Since the country invested little in education, public education's standards dropped and the middle class moved their children to private schools. Nowadays, practically all the middle class sends their children to private schools. Costs may vary from as little as R$ 600 (US$ 240) p.a. in smaller cities to R$ 30,000 (US$ 17,000) p.a. in São Paulo or Rio de Janeiro. I would like to give a biggest applause to Bolsa Escola and FUNDEF in thier effort to improve Brasil educational system. (I wish this effort will encourage parents to sent their children to school)
Education is vital, it creates nation, it creates civilization and it makes the nation think and react appropriately according to the most civilized approach. Drugs issues always my main concern in every part of the world, (currently I'm still doing research on drugs economy and government collaboration) When children lack of education and started to work at the early age, they are more vulnerable to adult peers, they sees things that they shouldn't see, and learn things that they should't know. I'll took one example when I was in Cambodia and Thailand, I met several families and interviewed them about the concept of education, personal finance and health issues.. most of the poor family agree with me that education is the most vital part for their children but due to financial difficulties, they can't afford to sent them to school, and the result, the children become odd job workers in the street of Siem Reap and Phnom Pehn, some were bagger, and some of this children are selling drugs on the street and it is really makes me sad. This wonderful children have a great future later to develop the nation but the financial pressures faced by most poor families and lack of government initiatives plans to creates more flexible and affordable educational system has causes this dilemma to occur. Back when I was in Pattaya, Thailand, I met a family where the mom is a veteran prostitute and the father is old time junkies did not sent thier son to school instead they have a plan to convert their son into becoming a ladyboy when thier son grows up to cater the sex industries in Pattaya, and the boy is illiterate and could not understand any English I'm spoken to him but instead the boy can only say one paragraph, 'fuck you farrang (foreigner)' There's another family I met where this single mother is a prostitute refused to sent her daughter to school by stating that the school could not offer her daughter wealth but instead she hope when her daughter grew up, she'll married some Caucasian or worst work in the brothel.. This is actually just a minor example and I'm not claiming that this phenomena are wide spreading to the whole Pattaya but my main objectives here is about the important of education to saves our beautiful children. So when the issue of illiterate and lack of school attendance by absent occured in Brasil, it's really sad phenomena.
Brasil may achieve social indicators similar to those of developed countries by 2016 if the country is able to maintain the same rate of reduction of extreme poverty and income inequality as recorded over the 2003 to 2008 period. By the same token, the country may record an absolute poverty rate of 4%. The data, were taken from a document issued by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), linked to the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of the Republic. People are considered extremely poor who earn up to 25% of one minimum wage per month, whereas the absolutely poor earn up to 50% of one minimum wage per month.
"If we make a projection of the best performances recently recorded in Brazil in terms of poverty and inequality reduction (2003-2008 period) to the year of 2016, the result would be a very positive social outlook. Brazil may virtually overcome the problem of extreme poverty, as well as attain a national absolute poverty rate of only 4%, which means its near-eradication," the document states. According to the document, the majority of the progress achieved by Brazil in fighting poverty and inequality is either directly or indirectly related to the structuring of public policies of social intervention, provided for in the Federal Constitution of 1988.
So the conclusion here.. does the statistic of GDP, GNP is relevant to Brasilian? Social classes are in a huge gap, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. We understand the concept of the rich and poor but to enhance quality of life through education, economic equilibrium and wealth distribution. 2010 is the year of election for Brasil. What will the candidates bring up front issues and measures to fight for in order to help Brasil? Will we see a new Brasilian spirit that loves Brasil? That love Brasil like Dom Pedro II? I still remember Senator Rui Barbosa famous last comment on Dom Pedro II : "Le manque de justice, M. le Sénateurs, est le grand mal de notre terrain, le mal de maux, l'origine de toutes nos malchances, la source de tout notre discrédit, est la misère suprême de cette pauvre nation. […] Après le fait de voir tant de triomphe d'inutilité, après le fait de voir tant de déshonneur prospérer, après le fait de voir tant de pouvoir dans les mains des méchants gens grandissent, l'homme devient démoralisé de la vertu, il rit à lui de l'honneur et devient confus d'être honnête. Cela a été le travail de la République dans les années dernières. Dans l'autre régime [dans la Monarchie] l'homme qui avait une certaine honte dans sa vie a été perdu pour toujours, comme une carrière politique lui serait fermée. Il y avait un factionnaire attentif [Dom Pedro II], dont chacun a craint la sévérité et que, brillant et très haut, a protégé les environs, comme un phare qui ne s'éteint jamais, dans l'avantage d'honneur, justice et moralité."
We'll pray and gives our love to Brasil, Brasil economy, Brasil Children and Copacabana...
As in this year 2010, Brasil will again 'confront' with national election for the new President. Several candidate that run the campaign has come up with more creative and constructive new ideas for Brasilian, matters such as economic, social policies, green-policies and civil-safety policies were the main concern for these candidate. As Brasil heads towards the economic growth and economic prosperity with rapid development and industrialization, a new measure and policies need to be focus more deeply on poor and rural population.
According to Blanco Central do Brasil, Brazil is a member of diverse economic organizations, such as Mercosul, SACN, G8+5, G20 and the Cairns Group. Its trade partners number in the hundreds, with 60% of exports mostly of manufactured or semimanufactured goods.[11] Brazil's main trade partners in 2008 were: Mercosul and Latin America (25.9% of trade), EU (23.4%), Asia (18.9%), the United States (14.0%), and others (17.8%), its gross domestic product,GDP, surpasses $1.6 trillion dollars, the eighth in the world and the second in the Americas in the World Bank ranking; measured by purchasing power parity, $1.9 trillion, making it the ninth largest economy in the world.
History of Brasil economy are dated back during Portuguese era (1500-1822), where the main economic activity are sugar, gold and coffee, this rapid activity of production makes Portuguese to bring African slaves to cope with the demand of production, estimated statistics show that 4.5 million people emigrated to the country between 1882 and 1934 and creates a new identity and demographic more unique and diversify.
Period of great economic transformation and growth occurred between 1875 and 1975 where in 1808, Brasil obtained a permit from the Portuguese colonial government to set up its first factories and manufacturers. In the last decade, domestic production increased by 32.3% and agribusiness (agriculture and cattle-raising), which grew by 47% or 3.6% per year, was the most dynamic sector. Recent report from Blanco Central do Brasil indicated that Brasil inflation rose 0.28% per annum which where this growth of inflation is in a healthier pace.
Oil production is the second biggest in Latin America after Venvuela. Brasil proven oil reserve stood at the rank 16th with 0.90%. Several invitation from OPEC has been refused and rejected my current President Lula as he quoted 'there's no reason for Brasil to join OPEC as Brasil intended to export oil derive materials and not the crude oil'. This action worried OPEC members. Lula reportedly claimed that Brasil shouldn't import raw material as Brasil itself will aims to increase its own national industrial production. Current largest purchaser on Brasil oil is United States of America, People Republic of China and other smaller nation. Economist in Brasil projected that the revenue derived from oil production and export will enhance more drastically towards Brasil economy and development.
GDP report on 2008 is US$ 1.612 trillion which ranked Brasil the 8th in the world, GDP growth is 1.5%, GDP per capita is US$ 8.295 ranked 63th by IMF and Unemployment Rate is 7.5% - 9.1 % on 2009. Export valued at US$ 197.9 billion (wikipedia) and import valued at US$ 173.2 billion (wikipedia). Blanco Central do Brasil released a report on Foreign Reserve for the year 2009 net value US$ 237.5 billion and Public Debt at US$ 103.2 billion.
According to my best friend who reside in Rio de Janeiro, the cost of living in Brasil especially in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are extremely high, and according Mercer's 2009 Cost of Living surveys stated that the cost of living in Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro have experienced a reverse move, plummeting from 25th to 72nd and 31st to 73rd respectively as it is believes to be due to the strengthening of US dollar and active domestic involvement to stimulus the economy.
Brasil component of economy comprised on the service sector as the largest component of GDP at 66.8%, followed by the industrial sector at 29.7% (2007 est.). Agriculture represents 3.5% of GDP (2008 est.). Brazilian labor force is estimated at 100.77 million of which 10% is occupied in agriculture, 19% in the industry sector and 71% in the service sector. The minimum wage set for the year of 2010 is R$ 6.630,00 or R$ 510,00 per month plus and additional 13th salary (R$ 255,00 in June and R$ 255,00 in December)(Brasil National Labour Statistic 2009). Moisés Naím, a Venezuelan writer, critique gave his comment on Brasil economic status saying that "In Brazil a labor-union leader has presided over an amazing period of social and economic progress. It is also one of the few countries that have successfully managed to reduce economic inequality at a time when everywhere else inequities are deepening. Successive Brazilian governments, of rival political parties, have succeeded in improving education, health and the living standards of millions of impoverished citizens who have now joined a growing middle class. Brazil has an energy policy that has spawned the world's most vibrant biofuels industry. In 1995, 15 percent of Brazilian school-age children did not go to school. In 2005, this fell to 3 percent, and today Brazil has practically achieved universal basic education." Newsweek - June 2009.
Comment from Dr Naim has open a new perspective for me to explore more toward the social structure and demographic reality of Brasil and of course Brasilian.
The terminology of 'economic inequality' makes me wonder what does it is actually means.. could it be a metaphor or simply sarcastic hyperbole? Need to agree again with my friend in Rio, Miss Esteves, whereby she'd explained to me that the social income are utterly in a biggest gap. There's not anymore 'invincible hand' as our Father of Modern Economy, Adam Smith, taught us. Social issues in Brasil contrasts for the fact of the country be the ninth largest economy in the world and the largest in Latin America. It is a country of extremes, with outstanding cultural, social and ecological diversity. Modern industry and commerce has flourished alongside with tremendous inequality, currently, one of the most serious challenges for the country today. Despite the rich natural resources, rapid economic development, and the overall size of Brazil's economy, the nation has major problems with poverty, hunger, disease, and inadequate public services. The income difference between rich and poor is among the most substantial in the world. According to Gini Coefficient Index, Brasil has amongst the highest income inequality in the world, ranking 49.3, with the richest 10% of Brazilians receiving 50% of the nation's income, while the poorest 10% receive less than 1%.
"Poverty in Brasil is most visually represented by the various favelas, slums in the country's metropolitan areas and remote upcountry regions that suffer with economic underdevelopment and below-par standards of living. An attempt to mitigate these problems is the "Fome Zero" hunger-eradication program implemented by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2003. Part of this is "Bolsa Família," a major anti-poverty program that gives money directly to impoverished families so as to keep their children in school." wikipedia
President Lula's government reduced 19.8% the rate of misery based on labour income during June 2002 and June 2006 according to Fundação Getúlio Vargas. In June 2006, the rate of misery was 18.57% of the population. The rate of poverty is in part attributed to the country's economic inequality. Brazil ranks among the world's highest nations in the Gini coefficient index of inequality assessment. A study on the subject shows that the poor segment constitutes roughly one third of the population, and the extremely poor make out 13% (2005 figures). However, the same study shows the income growth of the poorest 20% population segment to be almost in par with China, while the richest 10% are stagnating.
The world still remember this shocking incident occurred in Rio de Janeiro on October - November 2009 when the Police and Drug gang member are shooting each other for several weeks. The Rio Times called it a 'war'. This has tarnished Rio de Janeiro image for 2016 Olympic, and makes people wonder would it be safe to live in Rio? Of course it is safe living in Rio if you have someone you know in Brasil, Crimes can happen anywhere and nobody could avoid this phenomena, but when there's a lack of action and prevention done by the authority.. this will causes worried, the domestic economy will suffer because it is not more safe to operate their businesses, the Foreign Direct Investor would withdraw from Brasil as they afraid that this circumstances will caused panic to the market and this will result a new economic crisis. Brasil has serious problems with crime especially in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. With roughly 23.8 homicides per 100,000 residents, muggings, robberies, kidnappings and gang violence are common. Police brutality and corruption are widespread. In response, the Brazilian government established the National Public Security Force (FNSP) in June 2004 by the Ministry of Justice, to act in situations of emergency, in times of crisis. But the FNSP only react when there's time of crisis, why don't enhance the civil security services? discipline? anti-corruption? and widening and also enhancing civil legislation to create more peace and safer Brasil? It's is well understand that President Lula and his teams has done every measures and action to solve this issue the best they could.
Dr Naim stated again that the school attendance are really bad for Brasilian children. School attendance by absence is the biggest problem in Brasil educational system. As reported by UN, most children in poor family has started to work at the age of 10, while it is illegal to work under the age of 16 in Brasil, the number of child labour are increasing, one of the biggest reason for these wonderful children to work at the young age is to help their family. The standards of primary and secondary public education have been falling over the past decades. Since the country invested little in education, public education's standards dropped and the middle class moved their children to private schools. Nowadays, practically all the middle class sends their children to private schools. Costs may vary from as little as R$ 600 (US$ 240) p.a. in smaller cities to R$ 30,000 (US$ 17,000) p.a. in São Paulo or Rio de Janeiro. I would like to give a biggest applause to Bolsa Escola and FUNDEF in thier effort to improve Brasil educational system. (I wish this effort will encourage parents to sent their children to school)
Education is vital, it creates nation, it creates civilization and it makes the nation think and react appropriately according to the most civilized approach. Drugs issues always my main concern in every part of the world, (currently I'm still doing research on drugs economy and government collaboration) When children lack of education and started to work at the early age, they are more vulnerable to adult peers, they sees things that they shouldn't see, and learn things that they should't know. I'll took one example when I was in Cambodia and Thailand, I met several families and interviewed them about the concept of education, personal finance and health issues.. most of the poor family agree with me that education is the most vital part for their children but due to financial difficulties, they can't afford to sent them to school, and the result, the children become odd job workers in the street of Siem Reap and Phnom Pehn, some were bagger, and some of this children are selling drugs on the street and it is really makes me sad. This wonderful children have a great future later to develop the nation but the financial pressures faced by most poor families and lack of government initiatives plans to creates more flexible and affordable educational system has causes this dilemma to occur. Back when I was in Pattaya, Thailand, I met a family where the mom is a veteran prostitute and the father is old time junkies did not sent thier son to school instead they have a plan to convert their son into becoming a ladyboy when thier son grows up to cater the sex industries in Pattaya, and the boy is illiterate and could not understand any English I'm spoken to him but instead the boy can only say one paragraph, 'fuck you farrang (foreigner)' There's another family I met where this single mother is a prostitute refused to sent her daughter to school by stating that the school could not offer her daughter wealth but instead she hope when her daughter grew up, she'll married some Caucasian or worst work in the brothel.. This is actually just a minor example and I'm not claiming that this phenomena are wide spreading to the whole Pattaya but my main objectives here is about the important of education to saves our beautiful children. So when the issue of illiterate and lack of school attendance by absent occured in Brasil, it's really sad phenomena.
Brasil may achieve social indicators similar to those of developed countries by 2016 if the country is able to maintain the same rate of reduction of extreme poverty and income inequality as recorded over the 2003 to 2008 period. By the same token, the country may record an absolute poverty rate of 4%. The data, were taken from a document issued by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), linked to the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of the Republic. People are considered extremely poor who earn up to 25% of one minimum wage per month, whereas the absolutely poor earn up to 50% of one minimum wage per month.
"If we make a projection of the best performances recently recorded in Brazil in terms of poverty and inequality reduction (2003-2008 period) to the year of 2016, the result would be a very positive social outlook. Brazil may virtually overcome the problem of extreme poverty, as well as attain a national absolute poverty rate of only 4%, which means its near-eradication," the document states. According to the document, the majority of the progress achieved by Brazil in fighting poverty and inequality is either directly or indirectly related to the structuring of public policies of social intervention, provided for in the Federal Constitution of 1988.
So the conclusion here.. does the statistic of GDP, GNP is relevant to Brasilian? Social classes are in a huge gap, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. We understand the concept of the rich and poor but to enhance quality of life through education, economic equilibrium and wealth distribution. 2010 is the year of election for Brasil. What will the candidates bring up front issues and measures to fight for in order to help Brasil? Will we see a new Brasilian spirit that loves Brasil? That love Brasil like Dom Pedro II? I still remember Senator Rui Barbosa famous last comment on Dom Pedro II : "Le manque de justice, M. le Sénateurs, est le grand mal de notre terrain, le mal de maux, l'origine de toutes nos malchances, la source de tout notre discrédit, est la misère suprême de cette pauvre nation. […] Après le fait de voir tant de triomphe d'inutilité, après le fait de voir tant de déshonneur prospérer, après le fait de voir tant de pouvoir dans les mains des méchants gens grandissent, l'homme devient démoralisé de la vertu, il rit à lui de l'honneur et devient confus d'être honnête. Cela a été le travail de la République dans les années dernières. Dans l'autre régime [dans la Monarchie] l'homme qui avait une certaine honte dans sa vie a été perdu pour toujours, comme une carrière politique lui serait fermée. Il y avait un factionnaire attentif [Dom Pedro II], dont chacun a craint la sévérité et que, brillant et très haut, a protégé les environs, comme un phare qui ne s'éteint jamais, dans l'avantage d'honneur, justice et moralité."
We'll pray and gives our love to Brasil, Brasil economy, Brasil Children and Copacabana...
Taken from Bloomberg.com
By Bloomberg News
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China, which cut Treasury holdings by the most in five months in November, may reduce purchases further on concern the dollar will decline, said Liu Yuhui, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The Asian nation’s investors, the biggest foreign holders of U.S. government debt, trimmed holdings by $9.3 billion in November to $789.6 billion, a Treasury Department report showed yesterday. The decline came even as Chinese foreign-exchange reserves swelled $61 billion in the month.
“China may reduce purchases of U.S. Treasuries because there has been no sign the dollar’s long-term trend of weakness will change,” said Liu, director of the Center for Chinese Economic Evaluation in Beijing at CASS, a government-backed research body. “But it won’t likely make a big adjustment to its existing holdings.”
The Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six other major currencies, has slumped 11 percent since Premier Wen Jiabao said on March 13 last year that he was worried about the “safety” of China’s U.S. investments. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Zhu Min said in Beijing on Dec. 17 that the dollar is set to weaken as President Barack Obama grapples with annual budget deficits in excess of $1 trillion.
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., increased holdings of non- dollar developed-market debt last month to the most since October 2004. Gross boosted the $201.7 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in the securities to 16 percent of assets in December from 5 percent in November, according to Pimco’s Web site.
‘Declining Trend’
CHINA MAY BUY LESS US DEBT ON DOLLAR DROP
“What many global bond managers are really thinking is that cross-border investment outside the U.S. has become a gigantic bet on the long-term declining trend in the dollar,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said in an e-mail interview.
CASS’s Liu said China may step up investments in energy and natural resources because demand will rise as the global economy is recovering from a slump, which will push up commodity prices.
China’s foreign-currency reserves, the world’s largest, rose to a record $2.4 trillion at the end of December, the central bank said on Jan. 15. Liu predicted the dollar’s weakness will last two to three years.
--Judy Chen, Wes Goodman. With reporting from Vincent Del Giudice, Theophilos Argitis in Winnipeg and Greg Quinn in Ottawa. Editors: Sandy Hendry
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China, which cut Treasury holdings by the most in five months in November, may reduce purchases further on concern the dollar will decline, said Liu Yuhui, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The Asian nation’s investors, the biggest foreign holders of U.S. government debt, trimmed holdings by $9.3 billion in November to $789.6 billion, a Treasury Department report showed yesterday. The decline came even as Chinese foreign-exchange reserves swelled $61 billion in the month.
“China may reduce purchases of U.S. Treasuries because there has been no sign the dollar’s long-term trend of weakness will change,” said Liu, director of the Center for Chinese Economic Evaluation in Beijing at CASS, a government-backed research body. “But it won’t likely make a big adjustment to its existing holdings.”
The Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six other major currencies, has slumped 11 percent since Premier Wen Jiabao said on March 13 last year that he was worried about the “safety” of China’s U.S. investments. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Zhu Min said in Beijing on Dec. 17 that the dollar is set to weaken as President Barack Obama grapples with annual budget deficits in excess of $1 trillion.
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., increased holdings of non- dollar developed-market debt last month to the most since October 2004. Gross boosted the $201.7 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in the securities to 16 percent of assets in December from 5 percent in November, according to Pimco’s Web site.
‘Declining Trend’
CHINA MAY BUY LESS US DEBT ON DOLLAR DROP
“What many global bond managers are really thinking is that cross-border investment outside the U.S. has become a gigantic bet on the long-term declining trend in the dollar,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said in an e-mail interview.
CASS’s Liu said China may step up investments in energy and natural resources because demand will rise as the global economy is recovering from a slump, which will push up commodity prices.
China’s foreign-currency reserves, the world’s largest, rose to a record $2.4 trillion at the end of December, the central bank said on Jan. 15. Liu predicted the dollar’s weakness will last two to three years.
--Judy Chen, Wes Goodman. With reporting from Vincent Del Giudice, Theophilos Argitis in Winnipeg and Greg Quinn in Ottawa. Editors: Sandy Hendry
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Taken from Dr. Mahathir Blog. The Hedgefund
I was reading Tun Dr Mahathir blog and noticing an interesting article to share with you all. It is a very valuable and informative article. Hope you'll enjoy it. Thanks Tun Dr. Mahathir.
1. One commenter on my blog does not think the hedge funds are doing anything wrong. That depends on what one considers to be wrong.
2. Hedge funds works on borrowed money. That is quite normal and acceptable. But they borrow anything up to thirty times the funds held by them. Ordinary investors cannot do this.
3. Investors therefore have to invest in hedge funds in order to take advantage of the borrowing capacity of the funds.
4. If an investor invests 1 million dollars, the hedge fund can borrow 30 million dollars. With this 30 million the hedge funds can invest in a variety of shares etc.
5. Obviously when the shares yield returns they will be 30 times the return on the 1 million invested with the funds.
6. After paying interest on the loans and subtracting the commission due to the managers of the funds there would still be a lot of profits left to pay to the original 1 million dollar investor. Paying this investor a 20% - 30% return on his 1 million investments would be well within the amount earned from the 30 million investments.
7. I am simplifying the example a little but essentially this is what happens. The savvy fund managers, very knowledgeable about the market can also guarantee the return on the 30 million and certainly the high return on the 1 million.
8. But supposing the investments by the fund result in a loss, the amount lost would also be 30 times more than the losses to be sustained by 1 million investment.
9. Assuming that the loss is 5%. On 30 million it would amount to 1.5 million. The loss cannot be met by the original 1 million investment. If the interest and other charges on the 30 million is added, there is no way for the hedge fund managers to cover the losses. That is when the 1 million investment would be lost. Orange County in California was bankrupted in this way by the investment in the hedge funds.
10. The operation by this hedge fund is legitimate. It can result in huge returns for the investors. It can also result in the investor becoming bankrupt. In America it has contributed to the financial crisis plaguing it today.
11. Whether we consider the investment through the hedge fund is good or bad depends on us. If we don't mind the collapse of the financial institutions then it is good. But most people regard the current financial meltdown as bad.
1. One commenter on my blog does not think the hedge funds are doing anything wrong. That depends on what one considers to be wrong.
2. Hedge funds works on borrowed money. That is quite normal and acceptable. But they borrow anything up to thirty times the funds held by them. Ordinary investors cannot do this.
3. Investors therefore have to invest in hedge funds in order to take advantage of the borrowing capacity of the funds.
4. If an investor invests 1 million dollars, the hedge fund can borrow 30 million dollars. With this 30 million the hedge funds can invest in a variety of shares etc.
5. Obviously when the shares yield returns they will be 30 times the return on the 1 million invested with the funds.
6. After paying interest on the loans and subtracting the commission due to the managers of the funds there would still be a lot of profits left to pay to the original 1 million dollar investor. Paying this investor a 20% - 30% return on his 1 million investments would be well within the amount earned from the 30 million investments.
7. I am simplifying the example a little but essentially this is what happens. The savvy fund managers, very knowledgeable about the market can also guarantee the return on the 30 million and certainly the high return on the 1 million.
8. But supposing the investments by the fund result in a loss, the amount lost would also be 30 times more than the losses to be sustained by 1 million investment.
9. Assuming that the loss is 5%. On 30 million it would amount to 1.5 million. The loss cannot be met by the original 1 million investment. If the interest and other charges on the 30 million is added, there is no way for the hedge fund managers to cover the losses. That is when the 1 million investment would be lost. Orange County in California was bankrupted in this way by the investment in the hedge funds.
10. The operation by this hedge fund is legitimate. It can result in huge returns for the investors. It can also result in the investor becoming bankrupt. In America it has contributed to the financial crisis plaguing it today.
11. Whether we consider the investment through the hedge fund is good or bad depends on us. If we don't mind the collapse of the financial institutions then it is good. But most people regard the current financial meltdown as bad.
Japan BOJ moves and measures
18 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan will persist with its easy monetary policy to defeat deflation and sustain the economic recovery, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said.
“The Bank of Japan recognizes it is a crucial challenge for Japan’s economy to overcome deflation and return to a sustainable growth path with price stability,” Shirakawa said at the bank’s quarterly meeting of regional branch managers in Tokyo today. “The central bank is aiming to maintain an extremely accommodative financial environment.”
Shirakawa was speaking for the first time since Finance Minister Naoto Kan indicated he wants the central bank to do more to bolster prices and support the economy. The recovery from Japan’s worst postwar recession has been driven by exports as weak spending at home exacerbates deflation.
“The Bank of Japan’s assessment so far is that the economy will stay on a moderate recovery track and it wants to watch how things will develop,” said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute and a former BOJ official. Still, “the bank seems ready to take action should the economy be exposed to renewed shocks,” he said.
The yen was little changed, trading at 90.78 per dollar at 11:47 a.m. in Tokyo from 90.77 late Jan. 15 in New York and about 7 percent weaker than the 14-year high of 84.83 reached on Nov. 27. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 1.8 percent, paring gains over the past 12 months to 31 percent. The yield on Japan’s 10-year bond fell 1 basis point to 1.31 percent.
Return to Growth
Gross domestic product in Japan is forecast to expand 1.4 percent in 2010 after a projected 5.3 percent contraction last year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“Japan’s economy is picking up, although there isn’t yet sufficient momentum to support a self-sustaining recovery in domestic private demand,” Shirakawa said today. He said the global economy started to mend around the second quarter of 2009 and “has been recovering at a moderate pace recently.” World financial markets are also improving, he said.
Kan, who took over as finance minister this month, said on Jan. 14 that are “still various policy measures that could be taken” by the central bank and the government. He said today that he can’t rule out the chance of another economic slump.
“The risk of falling into a double-dip recession hasn’t been completely erased yet,” Kan told reporters in Tokyo. The Diet session beginning today “should prioritize the economic and fiscal situation,” he said.
Record Budget
Kan will seek lawmakers’ approval for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s record 92.3 trillion yen ($1 trillion) proposed budget for next fiscal year.
The Bank of Japan released a 10 trillion yen credit program last month after Kan urged it to ease monetary policy when he was economy minister. Shirakawa told the branch chiefs that the central bank will continue to “consistently” work toward defeating deflation and achieving sustainable growth.
The heads of the central bank’s regional offices will publish their joint economic report, similar to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, at 2:30 p.m. in Tokyo. Heads of the branches of Osaka, Nagoya, Sapporo and Fukuoka will brief reporters about their economies later this afternoon.
Shirakawa and his colleagues said last month that they don’t tolerate price declines, spurring expectations they won’t raise the benchmark overnight lending rate from 0.1 percent until inflation returns to the world’s second-largest economy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net
“The Bank of Japan recognizes it is a crucial challenge for Japan’s economy to overcome deflation and return to a sustainable growth path with price stability,” Shirakawa said at the bank’s quarterly meeting of regional branch managers in Tokyo today. “The central bank is aiming to maintain an extremely accommodative financial environment.”
Shirakawa was speaking for the first time since Finance Minister Naoto Kan indicated he wants the central bank to do more to bolster prices and support the economy. The recovery from Japan’s worst postwar recession has been driven by exports as weak spending at home exacerbates deflation.
“The Bank of Japan’s assessment so far is that the economy will stay on a moderate recovery track and it wants to watch how things will develop,” said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute and a former BOJ official. Still, “the bank seems ready to take action should the economy be exposed to renewed shocks,” he said.
The yen was little changed, trading at 90.78 per dollar at 11:47 a.m. in Tokyo from 90.77 late Jan. 15 in New York and about 7 percent weaker than the 14-year high of 84.83 reached on Nov. 27. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 1.8 percent, paring gains over the past 12 months to 31 percent. The yield on Japan’s 10-year bond fell 1 basis point to 1.31 percent.
Return to Growth
Gross domestic product in Japan is forecast to expand 1.4 percent in 2010 after a projected 5.3 percent contraction last year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“Japan’s economy is picking up, although there isn’t yet sufficient momentum to support a self-sustaining recovery in domestic private demand,” Shirakawa said today. He said the global economy started to mend around the second quarter of 2009 and “has been recovering at a moderate pace recently.” World financial markets are also improving, he said.
Kan, who took over as finance minister this month, said on Jan. 14 that are “still various policy measures that could be taken” by the central bank and the government. He said today that he can’t rule out the chance of another economic slump.
“The risk of falling into a double-dip recession hasn’t been completely erased yet,” Kan told reporters in Tokyo. The Diet session beginning today “should prioritize the economic and fiscal situation,” he said.
Record Budget
Kan will seek lawmakers’ approval for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s record 92.3 trillion yen ($1 trillion) proposed budget for next fiscal year.
The Bank of Japan released a 10 trillion yen credit program last month after Kan urged it to ease monetary policy when he was economy minister. Shirakawa told the branch chiefs that the central bank will continue to “consistently” work toward defeating deflation and achieving sustainable growth.
The heads of the central bank’s regional offices will publish their joint economic report, similar to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, at 2:30 p.m. in Tokyo. Heads of the branches of Osaka, Nagoya, Sapporo and Fukuoka will brief reporters about their economies later this afternoon.
Shirakawa and his colleagues said last month that they don’t tolerate price declines, spurring expectations they won’t raise the benchmark overnight lending rate from 0.1 percent until inflation returns to the world’s second-largest economy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net
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