Food Crisis

Food Crisis.. what does it means in the nutshell? Short of supply? Lack of demand? Unregulated ceiling price? or no demand for food? Crisis can represent a general meaning, often to a negative term.
I still remember when I was residing in Lyon, France back in 2007 with my late-girlfriend, living in a hectic environment inside my apartment where wars towards stock market are happening in my trading room. Particularly a serious discrepancy to compare inside and outside my apartment where outside is much more calm and sooth, less vehicle noises, wheat and grape farms and vineyards surrounding the area.. that's is total peace as I could recall now. There's not in the slightest in my conscious that this issue would ever crossing my thought, until when I put on my TV and watch CNBC Europe on cable.. there's this dude from United Nation (can't recall his name) warns about the possibility of a food shortage. The most drastically impacted nation will be the third world nation where their GDP and GNP are in the lowest value.
I was sitting there in the couch and analyzing back his comment on the possibility of the food shortage that might occur in Mexico, African Continent, Indonesia, and some poor Latin American Nation. These mentioned nation produce tons of food, and the supply and demand are in a healthier pace. Agriculture in the main economic engines for these nation, they produce and they export in globally, so what is the possibility for a food shortage?? There's a book I read years back when I was in uni entitled Solidarity Of The People Of Nicaragua, I can't remember the author name. In that book, the research and surveyed made by the author indicates that the Nicaraguan bananas are shorting because they export in to America to make breakfast cereals, the coffee beans are short as well, to cater the global demand, and the result of the commodity is insufficient to the local itself. And they need to import several commodity which in a logical and biological terms is relevant to produce by Nicaraguan.
If you watch NBC recently. Legendary stock investor, Jim Roger quoted that the food shortages is coming in a few years because the agriculture sector is in dire need of funds. Speculators tend to hit the commodity as the buying distress commodity is the better way to make money rather than stock. When Mr. Roger said that the fundamental for agricultural is getting better, the investories has been in the lowest they've been in decades, not in years.
My late mentor and teacher on financial market loves to speculate on commodity. His favorite is cotton and coffee because they are often distress, Every week on Monday, he'll be calling in broker in Hong kong to set short or long the commodity. He said don't bother about stock as we tend to make her accumulate in due time but commodity is likely to win in both optimistic and pessimistic.
So the vital question is.. should traders and speculator be banned from getting near commodity?
History has showed us about the impact of hyperinflation when it hit German during World War 1, the rise of the food cost, the rising number on unemployment, the food shortage et cetera.. it is all a possibility that this scenarios could occur back in this new millennium. The remedy? Government and policy maker need to think outside the box and makes food more accessible, creates an independent food producer, maximizing the food reserve allocation, controlling the ceiling prices and minimizing the dependent of import goods. We have to look at the finest example for food and commodity independence country such as China and India. Priority is to cater the inhabitant first and then to those who demand.
I hope that this prediction on food crisis will be false because there's million of hungry children with malnutrition is in a serious need of food. And I don't want to be hungry as I love to eat, live to eat!!! Joi de Vivre.

2010.. and I'm getting crazier

Good Title I guess.. I was called maddog by my fellow friends in this stock trading arena as I'm an utterly a drastic, risk-taker speculator.. so they called me maddog or sometimes refer me as a crazy dude. Well.... I deserve it, still doing what I love and still crazy like I was before. But the most crazier things will happened in this prosperous year..the year of Tiger (it's my year eventually). the US, Europe, Japan and South America will creates an unprecedented phenomena to the world economy market.

I was shorting Yen for the past 2 weeks and great scott.. the fluctuation are beautiful, I can see several pattern of 'Jenifer Lopez' on the candlestick, less doji and more certainty, but how long will this pattern and phenomena could sustain? The report for US economy on Retail Sales m/m and Unemployment are really bad.. but Yen are not dancing 'salsa', she dance 'tango' instead. Bank Of Japan issued a statement on 15 January said that “there are still various policy measures that could be taken by BOJ” Policy measures are scariest sentiment of all. Japan Finance Minister, Naoto Kan said that he will fight the deflation.. owh geezz, that great Mr. Naoto but fighting deflation will hike the Yen and it does no good to the export.. am I right? (I guess so) There's several good policy measures that has been taken brightly by BOJ, such as Expand the credit program, increase its monthly purchases of government bonds, or specify a timeframe for keeping the benchmark interest rate near zero. The spark for action may be another surge in the yen that could undermine the export-led recovery. USD/JPY price are currently stucked at 91.90 as I was typing right now..let her bull.. most of my friends said it will bear.. but she will bull, let her dance in her tango move, as long as she ride the bull, we all satisfied.

How does European Nation performed in 2009? so..so.. Yeah, at lest that is the nicest thing for me to said towards EU.. let's see what's with EU..hmm, What the hell happened to Greece??? mounting debts? mounting debts!! mamma mia, this issues has already sparked since the end on last year 2009, (wish I could get the info fast or else I'll be rich right now) I actually don't want to care about Greece so much but as long as Greece was part of the European Nation, I have to take note.. was it due to the government fault? banks? central bank? yes!!! we as a human loves to blame..pointing here and there, just to find a scapegoat. Jean-Claude Trichet are really concern about this scenario.. he want to cure this problems fast but with the help of other EU members.. Italy offered help, and france too, but currency speculators are the hardest creature to controls.. they like to create panic.. hmm pardon me to all fellow speculator.. I'm one of yours too, can't you agree with me?

China will always amazed me.. the country, people, the great Yang-tze He river and the girls..(funny that the girls didn't shaves their armpit hair...sad!)I've attended a seminar at Singapore Nanyang University where the key speakerof the event is the Mentor Minister, Lee Kuan Yew. He said.. "Invest in China, we did it 10 years ago, we profited, you did the same thing, you'll be profit as well" hmm... hard for me to agree Mr. Lee..I can only agree with your Rolls-Royce,kekekekekeke... China has a vast potential to be a great economy leader on economic market.. I like the term 'rising dragon' which refer to China. China are a business crazy.. they are crazier than me.. look at Geely, a car manufacturer in China able to purchase Peugeot, WTF!! if you following my previous blog, the Sichuan Tengzhou offered a bid to Hummer..woooooo HUMMER.. read my lips.. H-U-M-M-E-R.. the reality makes me want to open my humidor and light three Romeo Y Juliette Churchill cigars at the same time and inhale it deeply. China overtook the U.S. last year as the world’s largest automobile market with sales surging 46 percent to 13.6 million. About 99.7 percent of cars made in China through November last year were sold according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Question is... are we ready to buy China made product?? Look at yourself.. you might have at least 30% of 'China' in your daily life, probably the computer part that you're using, the fabric of your underwear, your make-up set, and your TV?most of the world greatest brand are moving their factory to China.. the migrated there and saves a lot. As a world largest energy consumer in the world, China are moving like an old 1967 Ford Mustang..still running, but the roar are getting more coarse.. If you follow up the Copenhagen World Climate Conference.. China are the one who stands up and urge the whole world to put more effort to curb the climate issues, and they blamed America and EU for their lack of participant.. hmm.. I guess they have remorse.. but still, China is not a joke anymore.. we will have to face the trust and trust China after all, or we can go to India...(that's sound much more good)
Guess I'm not the one who are getting crazier this year.. every body crazy.. I love it.. when there's crazy.. there must be sexy..this is how the economic pattern goes.. round and round..